UK Immigration

A Labour-Linked Think Tank Suggests Immigration Targets for the UK in 2025

A Labour-Linked Think Tank Suggests UK Immigration Targets

A think tank with strong connections to the current Labour government is urging Prime Minister Keir Starmer to adopt specific immigration targets for the UK. This comes despite Starmer’s previous statements against using what he called “arbitrary caps” on the number of people entering the country.

Labour Together, a group whose former leader is now Starmer’s chief of staff, has released a report suggesting that the UK should set “long-term targets” for immigration. Their proposal includes an “emergency brake” mechanism, which would allow for adjustments if immigration numbers appear to be exceeding the set targets.

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The think tank argues that this approach would lead to a more controlled and sustained reduction in immigration levels, while also ensuring that the UK can still meet its economic needs. This proposal follows recent data that revealed a larger-than-expected post-pandemic surge in legal immigration, reaching a record 906,000 people in the year leading up to June 2023.

While Starmer has criticized the previous Conservative government for what he called an “experiment in open borders” due to these high numbers, he hasn’t yet committed to a specific numerical target for reducing immigration. Instead, he has emphasized the need for a “serious plan” to manage borders, rather than relying on arbitrary caps.

Although immigration levels have decreased slightly due to recent visa restrictions implemented by the previous government, they remain higher than in previous years.

Labour Together’s proposal suggests that the government should set clear targets for different types of visas, considering factors like humanitarian needs, labor shortages, the requirements of specific industries, and the impact on housing, infrastructure, and public services. These targets would include an overall desired immigration number for several years, as well as sub-targets for specific visa categories. Should it appear that the overall target might be exceeded, the think tank suggests that Parliament should discuss ways to reduce the numbers, acting as an “emergency brake.”

This approach is similar to systems used in countries like Australia, where migration forecasts are published and the number of permanent visas is set for different categories. Currently, the UK does not have a cap on most visa routes, as long as applicants meet the necessary criteria. The main exception is visas for seasonal farm workers.

The previous Conservative government had once set a target of keeping net migration below 100,000, but it was never met and was eventually dropped following Brexit. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative party leader, has also stated that she would implement a “strict numerical cap” on migration if her party were to regain power.

Labour Together argues that setting targets for net migration (which includes the number of people leaving the UK) is not practical because it’s hard for the government to predict or control emigration, and because this data is often revised.

It’s worth noting that Labour Together is closely linked to Starmer’s administration, with its former head now serving as his chief of staff. The think tank’s current head, Jonathan Ashworth, was also part of Starmer’s shadow cabinet when Labour was in opposition.

Economists have pointed out that any system that attempts to cap immigration numbers could lead to difficult choices. This is because the types of immigration that are often seen as economically beneficial to the UK, such as skilled workers and students, are also the types that policymakers can most easily control.

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